According to the latest media reports, the ceasefire talks between Hamas and Israel are in the final stages. Israeli Defense Minister Katz Katz recently said that "a cease-fire agreement is closer than ever."
Lowe's released the number of container ships passing through the MandeStrait to a record this year in November 2024. But it should be noted that this change does not mean the return of global shipping companies to the Red Sea route.
The total number of container ships passed in November was 220, up 12.2% from the October peak.
According to ship tracking data, the significant increase in traffic basically came from 5000 TEU small ships, and the transit volume reached 193 in November, the highest level in 19 months.
This suggests that mainstream operators are still avoiding the Red Sea route and deploying large ships in Asia and Europe.
Around the Red Sea consumes nearly 7% of the world's container ship capacity, raising rates over the past ten months, according to the analyst firm Linerlytica.
In addition, the Xeneta analyzed in its 2025 outlook report that "ships do not return to the Red Sea", "partial return" and "complete return", respectively.
Senior analyst Emily Stausboll said: " A massive return to the Red Sea seems impossible at the moment, but at some time in 2025, a partial return is possible.”
But BIMCO expects container ships to continue to bypass the Cape of Good Hope in 2025 and may resume normal routes in 2026.
If the Red Sea routes return to normal in 2025, container shipping demand will fall by 5-6 percent, and then rise by 3.5-4.5 percent in 2026, when freight rates may fall.
While the future forecast for Red Sea routes is optimistic, rates for global routes remain high.
Since December, the freight rates on Asia-Europe and trans-Pacific routes have increased: In the first ten days of December, the export rates of Shanghai port to the western US and the east US base port were $4023 / FEU and $5494 / FEU respectively, up 21.6% and 11.6% respectively from a week ago.
Just last week, it was quoted at about $4,450 in the West and about $5,900 in the East.
European routes last week offered $4,900 to $5,200.
In addition, the major head ship companies have also levied additional fees in December:
From January 1,2025, Mediterranean Shipping (MSC) and Dffy (CMA CGM) will impose a new Panama Canal surcharge on the Asia-US East Coast route. The fee is $40 / TEU for all cargo types. Also, Mediterranean Shipping (MSC) has decided to double the "Emergency Operations" surcharge (EOS) from 18 January 2025.
The EOS charge for the 20-foot container soared from $500 to $1,300, while the 40-foot charge rose from $1,000 to $2,000 to $2,500.
From January 10, it will charge a surcharge on all cargo strikes in and out of the Eastern and Gulf ports. If no strike occurs on January 15, the strike surcharge will not apply.
According to Maersk's forecast, the phenomenon is mainly based on market demand, strike risk in eastern US ports, tariffs and the Red Sea crisis.
It can be seen that the easing of the Red Sea contradiction will not directly affect the global freight rates, and the strike and tariff crisis in the eastern US terminal are still forcing the freight rates to continue to rise.
The Red Sea route has not returned, still need to remain cautious wait and see. In this remind the main forwarder, multi-channel to understand the freight direction direction, in order to develop a reasonable delivery plan.
Source: SouHang Network