Recently, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) released the "2024 Review of Maritime Transport".
Data shows that global maritime trade ended its downward trend in 2023, achieving a growth of 2.4% and reaching 12.3 billion tons. It is expected to grow by another 2% in 2024 and at an average annual rate of 2.4% until 2029.
Suez Canal, the Panama Canal, and the Red Sea have increasingly been disrupted by factors such as climate change and geopolitical conflicts, becoming key terms in global maritime trade and causing significant impacts on the global supply chain.
Facing a complex regional environment and uncertainties, shipping companies have had to deal with rising costs and delays caused by these disruptions. Against this backdrop, The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) rose rapidly in the middle of this year and peaked in July.
Among them, from January to July 2024, the average SCFI freight rate from Shanghai to South America reached US dollars per TEU9026, the highest level since September 2022, doubling the increase.
Shanghai to South Africa nearly tripled to $ per TEU 5426, while Shanghai to West Africa rose 137% to $ per TEU 5563, the highest since August 2022.
After three months of rapid decline, freight rates began to recover again at the end of October.
By the beginning of November 2024, the space of major global routes is tense again, especially the surging demand of the US line, continuing the peak situation.
In this context, a number of shipping companies, including Maersk, Herberot, Delta Ship, HMM and ZIM, have announced freight adjustment plans, covering routes to Europe, the Mediterranean, the Indian subcontinent and Africa.
Some industry analysts believe that with the Lunar New Year before the "shipment tide" will come. By the beginning of 2025, the main freight rates in the Western States and Europe are likely to rise.
In 2025, as the reorganization of the container shipping alliance approaches, the global shipping alliance will undergo major changes and form a new competitive pattern.
Major changes include the dissolution of the 2M alliance, the independent operation of the Mediterranean Shipping (MSC), the establishment of new alliances and the continuous signing of cooperation agreements.
In addition, uncertainty will be created by the threat of Trump's return to the White House, the upcoming Lunar New Year peak and a possible port strike.
In 2025, the global shipping market may usher in an unprecedented market battle. How many "black swans" and "grey swans" are there still in international shipping?
Source: SouHang Network